The January WASDE report was viewed as relatively bullish for corn and beans and neutral for the wheat complex. This report finalizes 2024/25 U.S. row crop production numbers. USDA also released its quarterly Grain Stocks report today. This report’s inventory and usage levels during the first quarter for corn and soybeans were incorporated into the WASDE balance sheets. Market attention will remain focused on South American production and the incoming Administration’s impact on U.S. trade policy.

The 2024/25 corn balance sheet called for lower production, use, and ending stocks. Corn production was lowered on a 3.8 bushel per acre cut to 179.3 bushels per acre. This was below the average pre-report estimate of 182.6 and below the range of analysts’ estimates (181.3 to 183.7 range). Corn production was lowered by 276 million bushels from last month. Total corn use was reduced by 75 million bushels from last month on a combination of a lower feed and residual use (-50 million bushels) and exports (-25 million bushels). The reduction in supply outweighed the reduction in use, leading to ending stocks of 1.540 billion. This was below the average pre-report estimate of 1.678 billion bushels and below the lower end of the range of estimates (1.540 to 1.815 billion range). Global corn production was lowered by 4.8 million metric tons to 1.494 billion. Corn imports were lowered for China, South Korea, and Japan. Global corn ending stocks were lowered 3.1 million tons to 293.3 million metric tons. This was below the average pre-report estimate of 295.0 million but within the range of analysts’ estimates (290.5 to 297.1 million range).

Despite decrease in yield, 2024/25 corn yield marks a record-high:

Domestic corn stocks-to-use ratio lowered for 7th straight month:

The domestic soybean 2024/25 balance sheet called for lower production and ending stocks. Yield was reduced from last month to 50.7 bushels per acre. This was below the average of analysts’ pre-report estimate of 51.6 bushels per acre and below the low end of the range of estimates (51.2 to 52.6 range). Production was lowered by 95 million bushels to 4.4 billion. Much of the reduction in production occurred in Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio. Exports were unchanged from last month and ending stocks fell by 90 million bushels to 380 million. This was slightly below the low end of analysts’’ pre-report estimates (390 to 486 million range). Global soybean production was lowered slightly due to reduction in Russia and China. Global exports were unchanged from last month and ending stocks were lowered by 3.5 million metric tons to 128.4 million tons. This was below the average pre-report global ending stocks estimate of 132.0 million metric tons and below the range of estimates (130.0 to 133.0 million range).

Domestic soybean production lowered from last month:

Domestic stocks-to-use ratio lowered again from last month, expected to be marginally higher year-over-year:

The 2024/25 domestic wheat balance sheet called for slightly larger supplies, use, and ending stocks. Imports were uncreased from last month due to an increase in Hard Red Spring imports. Exports were unchanged from last month for wheat, although offsetting changes were made by class. Projected ending stocks were increased by 3 million bushels to 798 million bushels. This was below the average pre-report estimate of 807 million bushels but within the range of estimates (792 to 830 million range). Global wheat production was increased on increased supplies in the Middle East. Russian wheat exports were lowered from last month to 46 million metric tons. If realized, this would be 21 percent below a year ago. Global ending stocks were pegged at 258.8 million metric tons, slightly higher than last month and slightly higher than the average pre-report estimate of 258.2 million metric tons (256.5 to 259.0 million range).

Domestic ending stocks pegged at highest level since 2020/21:

Global ending stocks forecast at lowest level since 2015/16: