March 11, 2025
The March WASDE report was viewed as relatively neutral for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Unsurprisingly, the report did not attempt to include major tariff-related changes to the balance sheets. The report included the following note:
Market attention will focus on the upcoming Prospective Plantings report, South American production, and U.S. trade policy.
The domestic 2024/25 corn balance sheet was unchanged. The global balance sheet called for higher production and a decrease in ending stocks. Production in Ukraine and Russia was increased while South African production was lowered on lower area harvested. Production in Argentina and Brazil was unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks were pegged at 288.94 million metric tons. This was lower that last month’s estimate and slightly below analysts’ average pre-report estimate of 290 million metric tons (288 to 291.6 range).
Major corn exporter ending stocks continue to be pegged at lowest level since 2011/12:
The domestic soybean 2024/25 balance sheet was unchanged from last month while the soybean oil balance sheet called for higher exports and lower use for biofuel. The global soybean balance sheet called for marginal changes to production, increased crush, and lower ending stocks. Production was increased in Ukraine, Mexico, and Australia to offset lower production in South Africa. Production in Argentina and Brazil was unchanged. Soybean crush in China was increased by 2 million tons to 105 million. Global ending stocks were reduced by 2.9 million tons to 121.4 million. This was below the range of analysts’ pre-report estimates (122.2 to 125.0 million range).
Despite reduction in global ending stocks, forecasts call for record-high supplies at the end of the marketing year:
Chinese soybean ending stocks expected to be record-high:
The 2024/25 domestic wheat balance sheet called for larger supplies, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies were increased on an increase in imports. Exports were reduced by 1.7 percent from last month. Export reductions were made for hard red spring, soft red winter, and durum. Ending stocks were raised by 25 million bushels. If realized, this would represent an increase of 18 percent. The global balance sheet called for larger supplies and increased ending stocks. Production was increased for Australia by 2.1 million metric tons to 34.1 million. If realized, this would represent the third largest Aussie production on record. Global consumption was raised on higher feed and residual use in Australia, EU, and Thailand. Exports were decreased for the EU and Russia while Chinese imports were also reduced. Projected ending stocks were pegged at 260.1 million metric tons. This was slightly above the upper range of analysts’ pre-report estimates (256.09 to 259.3 million).
Domestic wheat use pegged at highest level since 2016/17:
Major exporter ending stocks pegged at lowest level since 2020/21:
