About The Author

Dustin Baker

As Director, Education and Research, Dustin helps market participants gain a better understanding of agricultural margin management concepts and strategies. He also contributes to CIH publications focused on risk management for agriculture producers and buyers.

2024 Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Summary

Today’s Prospective Plantings report provided USDA’s estimate for principal crop acreage for the upcoming crop year. Acreage estimates are based on surveys of approximately 71,800 farm operators conducted via mail, internet, and telephone during the first two weeks of March. Principal crop acres were pegged at 313.311 million acres, down 6.3 million from last year.

Market attention will continue to focus on Brazilian weather forecasts and soon shift to domestic planting progress and USDA’s new crop balance sheets, set to be released in May.

Corn

USDA pegged 2024 corn acreage at 90.036 million acres, well below the average estimate of 92.032 million acres and near the lower end of the range of estimates (90.0 to 93.8 million range). Corn acres in 2023/24 totaled 94.641 million. If realized, 2024 planted acres would represent a fall of 4.605 million acres, or 4.9 percent y/y. Corn acres are pegged lower across the Corn Belt, with marginal increases in the western portion of country. Corn acres were lowered from a year ago in 38 of the 48 states covered by the report.

Soybeans

USDA pegged 2024 soybean acreage at 86.150 million acres, nearly identical to the average estimate of 86.309 million acres (84.3 to 88.0 million range). Soybean acres in 2023/24 totaled 83.600 million. If realized, 2024 plantings would represent an increase of 2.91 million acres, or 3.5 percent from a year ago. This would also mark the 5th largest soybean planted acre area on record. Soybean acres are pegged to increase across the majority of states. Of the 29 major soybean producing states, acres are expected to increase from a year ago in 22 of them.

All Wheat

USDA pegged 2024 wheat acreage at 47.498 million acres, very close to the average pre-report estimate of 47.655 million acres (46.6 to 50.0 million range). All wheat acres in 2023/24 totaled 49.575 million. If realized, planted area for 2024 would represent a decrease of 4 percent from a year ago.

Grain Stocks

Today’s Grain Stocks report represents grain and oilseed stockpiles as of March 1. The data is collected via off- and on-farm stocks surveys. The on-farm stocks survey includes a sample of approximately 71,800 farm operators. The off-farm stocks survey includes 8,000 facilities.

Old crop corn stocks on March 1 totaled 8.35 billion bushels. This was 13 percent higher than a year ago but slightly lower than the average pre-report trade estimate of 8.439 billion bushels (8.129 to 8.700 billion range). Corn stored on farms was 24 percent higher than last year while off-farm stocks were down 1 percent. The December 2023-February 2024 indicated disappearance of 3.82 billion bushels was 11.7 percent higher than the previous year.

Old crop soybean stocks on March 1 totaled 1.85 billion bushels. This was up 9 percent from a year ago and slightly higher than the average pre-report estimate of 1.832 billion bushels (1.740 to 1.986 billion range). On-farm stocks were 24 percent higher than a year ago while off-farm stocks were 3 percent lower than last March. The December 2023-February 2024 indicated disappearance of 1.16 billion bushels was 13 percent lower than the same period a year earlier.

Old crop all wheat stocks on March 1 totaled 1.09 billion bushels. This was 2 percent higher than a year ago and slightly higher than the average pre-report estimate of 1.053 billion bushels (0.997 to 1.081 billion range). The December 2023-February 2024 indicated disappearance of 334 was down 10 percent from the previous year.