JUNE 2024 WASDE REPORT SUMMARY AND NOTES:

Today’s WASDE report was relatively neutral for corn, soybeans, and wheat with most estimates coming in line with analysts’ pre-report expectations. Market attention will remain focused on prospects of extreme heat and dryness in the U.S. and across the globe for the next 8 weeks.

For corn, the domestic 2024/25 balance sheet was unchanged from last month. The season- average price received by producers was also unchanged at $4.40 per bushel. The global balance sheet called for lower production and smaller ending stocks compared to last month’s estimates. Brazilian and Argentine 2023/24 corn production was unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks were lowered from last month to 310.8 million tons. This was slightly lower than the average pre-report estimate of 311.3 million metric tons but within the range of estimates (308 to 315 million range).

No change made to export forecasts despite slow pace of sales for new crop corn:

For soybeans, the domestic 2024/25 balance sheet called for higher beginning and ending stocks. Old crop soybean crush was lowered by 10 million bushels, leading to larger new crop beginning stocks. The rest of the supply and use categories were unchanged, leading to new crop ending stocks of 455 million bushels. This was identical to the average pre-report estimate. The season- average price received by producers was also unchanged at $11.20 per bushel. The new crop global balance sheet called for lower beginning stocks and ending stocks. Brazilian and Argentine 2023/24 soybean production was unchanged from last month. New crop global soybean ending stocks were pegged slightly lower than last month at 127.9 million metric tons, nearly identical to the average pre-report estimate of 127.8 million metric tons.

After reduction in soybean crush forecast, current crush is in line with historical pace needed to meet annual forecast:

For wheat, the domestic 2024/25 balance sheet called for larger supplies, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies were increased by 17 million bushels from last month. At 1.875 million bushels, production was slightly lower than the average pre-report estimate of 1.887 billion bushels (1.858 to 1.973 billion range). Exports were increased by 25 million bushels to 800 million to make up for reduced Black Sea supplies. Wheat ending stocks were lowered from last month to 758 million bushels. This was below the average pre-report estimate of 782 million bushels but within the range of estimates (741 to 837 million range). If realized, this would remain significantly higher than a year ago. The season average farm price was increased by 50 cents to $6.50 per bushel. The global wheat outlook called for smaller supplies and ending stocks. Supplies were deceased on reductions in production in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as hot and dry weather conditions continue to take their toll. These three regions accounted for an 8.0 million metric ton reduction in global production, partially offset by the increase in domestic production. Projected ending stocks were lowered 1.3 million tons to 252.3 million, nearly identical to the average pre-report estimate.

Despite reduction in ending stocks from last month, expectations are for largest all wheat ending stocks since 2020/21:

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