MAY 2024 WASDE REPORT SUMMARY AND NOTES:

Today’s report provided the first look at new crop balance sheets and incorporated acreage estimates from March’s Prospective Plantings report. As noted in the report itself, “Due to spring planting still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative”. Market attention will continue to focus on the shrinking South American crop, weather’s impact on planting across the Midwest, any signs of new crop export demand, and subsequent changes to these estimates in future WASDE reports.

For corn, the domestic 2024/25 balance sheet called for larger supplies outweighing greater use. The corn crop was pegged at 14.9 billion bushels, nearly identical to the average pre-report estimate. If realized, this would be 3 percent lower from last year’s record. The yield projection was pegged at 181.0 bushels per acre and assuming normal planting progress and growing season weather. Use was projected to increase under 1 percent from last year. Corn for ethanol was unchanged while exports were increased by 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion to fill in declines from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. Ending stocks were increased by 80 million bushels from a year ago and would be the largest since 2018/19. Pegged at 2.102 billion bushels, this was slightly lower than the average pre-report estimate but within the range of estimates (2.032 to 2.513 billion range). The stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2. percent would be the highest since 2019/20. Old crop Brazilian and Argentinian corn were each lowered by 2 million metric tons from last month’s estimate. Global new crop corn stocks were lowered slightly from a year ago to 312.3 million metric tons. This was below the average pre-report estimate of 317.4 million metric tons and near the lower end of the range of estimates (312.0 to 321.2 million range).

New crop corn exports expected to grow slightly from a year ago despite slow start to new crop outstanding sales:

Domestic new crop corn stocks-to-use ratio expected to continue to grow for 4th straight year:

For soybeans, the domestic 2024/25 balance sheet called for larger supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared to last year. The soybean crop was pegged at 4.45 billion bushels, higher than the average pre-report estimate of 4.430 billion bushels and near the higher end of the range of estimates (4.165 to 4.496 billion range). If realized, this would be 6.8 percent higher than a year ago. This also utilizes a national yield of 52.0 bushels per acre, leaning on a methodology that has been revised back to 2001/02 to reflect changes in management practices and technology. Domestic crush was forecasted to increased by 125 million bushels from a year ago due to higher demand for soybean oil as biofuel seedstock. Soybean meal domestic disappearance was raised on increased pork and poultry production. Soybean exports were forecasted to increase by 125 million bushels on a lower Brazilian 2024 harvest. U.S. ending stocks were pegged 105 million bushels higher than a year ago at 445 million bushels. While higher than the average pre-report estimate of 432 million bushels, this was within the range of estimates (315 to 552 million range). Old crop Brazilian soybean production was lowered by 1 million metric tons from last month to 154 million metric tons while Argentinian production was unchanged from a month ago at 50 million. The new crop soybean global balance sheet called for higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Pegged at 128.5 million metric tons, global ending stocks were slightly higher than the average pre-report estimate of 120.0 million and are expected to increase from 2023/24 ending stocks of 112 million metric tons.

Soybean exports expected to rebound from a year ago, despite historically slow new crop export sales on the books for this time of year:

Soybean stocks-to-use ratio expected to increase toward more average levels of past 30 years:

For wheat, the domestic 2024/25 balance sheet called for larger supplies, slightly higher use, and larger ending stocks. All wheat production was pegged 3 percent higher from a year ago at 1.858 billion bushels, nearly identical to the average pre-report estimate of 1.889 billion. The all wheat yield was increased by 0.3 bushels per acre to 48.9 bushels per acre. Winter wheat production was expected to increase as Hard Red Winter and White Winter production was expected to offset lower Soft Red Winter production. Domestic use was increased slightly while exports were increased by 55 million bushels from a year ago (which remains at a 52-year low). Ending stocks were increased by 11 percent at 766 million bushels. This was slightly lower than the average pre-report estimate but if realized would mark the largest domestic ending stocks in 4 years. The new crop global wheat balance sheet called for lower supplies, increased use, and reduced stocks. Production was increased in India, China, Australia, and Canada to offset reduction in Russia, the EU, and Ukraine. Global ending stocks were pegged at 253.61 million metric tons, slightly below the average pre-report estimate of 256.9 million metric tons.

New crop all wheat exports expected to grow, remain historically small:

Global ending stocks expected to decrease for 5th consecutive year:

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